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On Sunday, September 2, bitcoin (BTC) traded at $25.8 thousand, its price for the past week remained at the level of the end of the previous week. The specialist analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects for the movement of the bitcoin rate for the next seven days.
BTC/USD
25 933 +84 (0,32%)
Sep 03 14:32:21
“An exit from the correction is likely”
Key moments of the week:
Bitcoin price fluctuated in the range of $25,800 – $28,000 with attempts to go beyond it.
A positive court ruling on Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC caused a sharp rise to $28,142, but it was quickly reversed.
The SEC’s refusal to approve the bitcoin-ETF for 45 days caused the price to collapse to $25,655.
At the end of the week, the price remained trading above the key support of $25,300 despite high volatility due to US statistics.
In September, I expect the correction to end and move to a new uptrend.
Bitcoin traded mostly in the range of $25,800 – $28,000 this week. The most important support levels were $25,300 and $26,000. Resistances remain $28,000 and $30,500.
On Monday, the price hovered around $26,000 under the intermediate resistance level of $26,700. On Tuesday, sharp growth on positive news on Grayscale reached a local peak of $28,142, followed by a correction to $27,000.
A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit has overturned a decision by regulators to block Grayscale, an exchange-traded fund tied to the price of bitcoin.
On Wednesday, trading was in a narrow range in anticipation of important U.S. economic data. On Thursday, negative news about the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) refusal to approve the ETF caused a collapse to $25,625.
The agency postponed a decision on several bitcoin-ETF applications, delaying approval for 45 days. The regulator cited the need for more time to consider proposed rule changes to allow bitcoin-ETF trading. The new deadlines for decisions are October 17 and 19.
On Friday, despite high volatility, the price consolidated above the key support of $25,300. This preserves the bulls’ chances for the continuation of the uptrend. The sharp fluctuations were caused by the US labor market statistics.
The labor market showed moderate growth in August. The number of jobs increased by 187 thousand (forecast was 170 thousand). According to the revised data, in July the indicator grew by 157 thousand, not 187 thousand, as it was announced earlier. Indicators for the last three months came out below 200 thousand, which indicates a gradual slowdown in employment growth after a strong economic recovery.
At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, the highest since February 2022. This indicates continued tightness in the labor market despite a slowdown in hiring. The rise in unemployment can be attributed to labor supply outpacing growth.
In general, the data indicate a gradual cooling of the US labor market after a period of active recovery. This reflects a general slowdown in economic growth against the backdrop of the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy to fight inflation. Nevertheless, the situation is still far from critical – there is a moderate decline in the employment growth rate while the labor shortage in some sectors remains.
Technical analysis shows that bitcoin is in a downtrend after reaching a local high of $31,800. However, strong support at $25,300 is still holding the decline, maintaining a sideways channel since April 14. Since September, positive seasonal factors come into effect, which, combined with oversold conditions, gives a chance for a reversal of the uptrend. The key level for this is $28,000. Its breach will open the way to $30,500.
BitRiver estimates that it takes about 5-10 days below the $26,800 level to technically engage the sellers. Let them open more short positions in anticipation of further downward movement and then take them all out on stops above $26,800. Then you need to storm the $30,500 level. Only after consolidating above it, we can expect a new rally before halving.
On the whole, the week demonstrated the preservation of interest in bitcoin on the part of bulls, despite the sharp fluctuations. The exit from the correction is likely in the coming weeks with the resumption of growth to new highs.