In Coinbase considered the approval of the spot ETF already embedded in the price of bitcoin

If the exchange-traded product is launched, a significant inflow of funds into the first cryptocurrency is expected, but it will not happen immediately, according to the cryptocurrency exchange’s institutional division

Coinbase believes that the approval of spot bitcoin-ETFs is already partially embedded in the price of the first cryptocurrency, CoinDesk writes. The market expects that spot exchange-traded funds will “open the floodgates” for the inflow of funds into the asset, but the head of Coinbase Institutional Research David Duong is confident that this will happen at once, but only over time.

The analyst notes that in financial markets, a certain asset can grow on the background of unconfirmed good news, while other assets will be pressured by unfavorable macroeconomic events. This is what has happened in recent months in the cryptocurrency market, experts believe.

According to Coinbase Institutional, bitcoin has outpaced the growth of other cryptocurrencies amid macroeconomic uncertainty, in part because traders are waiting for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on BTC to be approved.

“We believe the divergence in the performance of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies indicates that potential approval of one or more spot bitcoin ETFs is already partially factored into the price,” Duong wrote in an Oct. 12 monthly report.

Since BlackRock, VanEck, Invesco Galaxy, Invesco Galaxy, ARK 21Shares and other financial industry giants filed applications for the creation of spot bitcoin-ETFs in mid-June, the asset itself has risen in price by 8%. Over the same period, the second most capitalized cryptocurrency Ethereum lost 7.5% in value, CoinDesk calculated.

In Coinbase Institutional note that since mid-June, the bitcoin rate, unlike Ethereum, has reduced dependence on the dynamics of the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds. The correlation for the first cryptocurrency is 0.45 (weak), for ETH – 0.76 (strong). This deviation for bitcoin began to show up in mid-June, around the same time that several spot bitcoin-ETFs were filed in the U.S., Duong said.

According to Coinbase’s analysis, once a spot ETF is approved, bitcoin could lose its edge to the broader market for a while – something like this has already happened after the launch of futures ETFs in October 2021.Analysts believe a significant net inflow of funds into the asset is possible, but it may take time.

Так было с SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), первым спотовым золотым ETF в США, который дебютировал 19 лет назад и сейчас имеет активы более $50 млрд. По словам Дуонга, за первые 30 дней после запуска GLD привлек всего $1,9 млрд (с учетом инфляции), а к концу первых 12 месяцев этот показатель вырос до $4,8 млрд.

Влияние потенциального запуска спотовых ETF не ограничится финансовыми потоками, полагают в Coinbase. По словам Дуонга, это также будет означать «негласный сдвиг» в регуляторной среде, что может благоприятно сказаться на рыночных оценках.

By Linda

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